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Rabobank’s Head of Financial Markets Research Jan Lambregts and Senior Asia-Pacific Strategist Michael Every will present a thematic global outlook ‘The Great Gamble’ looking at how high the stakes are, whether these big bets will pay off or not, and what it means for markets.
- The global economy appears to have suddenly hit a synchronized upturn, while Europe may have turned the corner politically. For the first time in a long time, there is a degree of optimism. We seem to be on a winning streak!
- However, our underlying problems, from China’s unsustainable debts to Europe’s unfinished reforms, from inequality to unhappiness at immigration, and from Trump’s unpredictability to the implications of Brexit, all remain unresolved.
- Moreover, as inflation heads lower rather than higher, and wages refuse to move at all, central banks are now joining hands to talk of “policy normalization”.
- Given the same central banks led us into the 2008-09 crisis and have failed to generate an equitable recovery so far, that looks a Great Gamble.
- There is much to be won if they are right – and a huge amount to be lost if they are wrong!
